the craptain blog #4
draftthoughts+playoffs?+predictions(omg)+Playoff team predictions
Another week, another shitty captain’s draft analysis, another 1–1. I really wish my team was firmly in the “guaranteed playoffs” or “guaranteed not-playoffs” category. In that case, I can just let fiery draft whatever the hell he wants and end on a fun game. Instead we’re stuck right on the tie-breakers line where we need a 2–0 next week, or the 1–1 might just lose us our spot based on SOS — pretty much the exact same scenario as last season, where we need a win in the final week to go to playoffs. So here we are… to the drafts!
The bans this series are very targeted (at least I assume so). I was told that NS was a must-ban against this team, and did so. They ban Ultra’s Ember, my Axe, and a Warlock. This team is annoying, and has first picked a Viper and PL in the past so need to take that out rather than meta bans. They first pick Mirana (as I’ve said in previous weeks, I think this is the strongest opener in the game… it can go anywhere depending on how the draft shakes out). We take 2 annoying supports that each are supposed to win lanes in Skywrath and Windranger. They grab an Abbadon… pretty annoying, can play in the offlane or a hybrid tank/support role. So at this point in the draft, we have either 2 supports or a mid/support (depending on where Windranger goes). They have a 3/4/5 hero and a 1/2/3/4 hero, so not much is known about either draft, though we’ve shown much more of our draft.
They ban out Slark and Invoker (we’ve only run Slark once in a scrim, and Invoker once). We take out Lycan (another hero they’ve run) and Luna (my least favorite safelaner to go against). So at this point in the draft we’re pretty positive we’re running Windranger in the offlane as a support as we’ve done most other times, so we wanted to pick up something that could take advantage of the harrass Windranger provides. At this point I was leaning towards a Doom pick (one of my stronger heroes, especially with Axe banned). Ultragunner brings up the point that we have a lot of single target already on the board, and Doom would just add another single target hero. So this puts us in a tough spot: we know very little about their lanes, and we’ve already picked our supports. We definitely don’t want to pick our safelane or mid at this point with the little amount of knowledge we have. We need something a little tankier with some level of AOE that could use the space Windranger is built to provide. We’ve run Beastmaster a lot as the Windranger combo, and we usually win the lane with it. But my personal Beastmaster falls off really hard in mid/late game because I don’t have a great feel for the hero. Centaur Warrunner was the other considered option, and I’m convinced (admittedly very apprehensively) to pick between the two. I do end up picking Centaur, with the goal to focus on farming properly on the hero. Centaur is strange in that I don’t think it’s strong in lane, requires a blink to do anything on the map, can farm jungle but slowly since he requires creeps to hurt him for return damage, or using double edge to clear camps hurting himself as well. His initiation/escape is pretty strong early game, and his tank is godly late game, but it requires a few things to go right. They go ahead and pick up Clinkz, strong push, apparently strong laner, can eliminate one of our squishys with an orchid.
Here I pick the Bloodseeker. I thought that pairing it with the Skywrath would really be able to win their lane, and we could chase down any escaping heroes after fights. Unfortunately that did not go according to plan (more on that later). They grab Kunkka, which only confuses us more. Mirana can go 1,2,3,4; Abba can go 3,4,5; Clinkz is probably 1, could mayyybe 2; Kunkka is a 2,4 hero…. Jumping ahead for a sec, the Medusa could go 1,2. So ideally, I would assume that it would have to go as follows:
Safelane: Clinkz + Abbadon
Offlane: Mirana + Kunkka
The pairings are technically correct, but they actually switch up the lanes and put Mirana+Kunkka in the safelane with the others in offlane. We do grab Alchemist this game, thinking we can peak a little early… everyone on our team can use Aghanims, and we can run them over before they get too big.
We lost lanes… hard. Kunkka+Mirana have this torrent+arrow combo that I was not prepared for. They went on Windranger a few times with the combo, I didn’t know if I should just run over and try to block the arrow or what. I did try to stomp before the combo happened, but rarely got it off in time. So our lane was LOST. Top lane with Sky+Blood…. I’m really unsure what happened. I haven’t watched the replay, but I really thought they’d be able to win the game. Again, can’t offer up much more commentary since I didn’t watch the lane, but it was bad. I do find my blink at an okay time considering the lane we were in. I do focus really hard on keeping my farm up, able to get a heart+blademail. We go return aura and just hope they kill themselves on us. Ultra hands out aghs to most of us, being the only lane won. However none of the other heroes on our side are ready to fight when he comes online. They start just x-marking the clinkz allowing him to hit buildings, and we miss our eul’s multiple times to try and counter it. We do have a couple strong fights and are able to take some objectives, but we aren’t able to take the game. So yet again, we can at best get a 1–1…
In retrospect, our draft wasn’t good. I probably should have gone Beastmaster again so we could at least win our lane. Maybe I give Shaz the Bane that he’s been so solid on instead of just picking him a hero I’m not sure he’s played. Bloodseeker should have been good that game (or not??) but we could have tried to switch it up with something that cares less about Clinkz+Abba. Maybe we switch up lanes and have Sky bot with me where his harass is stronger and not pick the Windranger as our other support so early. All told, I didn’t draft plan well for this game and it showed.
Second game the openers are mostly the same. However, we take the risk that they won’t first pick the PL and ban Abbadon instead, but keep the NS+Viper bans. They stay with the exact same bans with the Axe, Ember, Warlock. Why change what worked. They take our Skywrath this game leaving Mirana in the pool. We take a much more defensive support in Oracle (AwfulWaffle is actually REALLY good on this hero too…) and take the Mirana. All 3 of our core players can play her, and we end up putting it offlane (don’t watch me trying to last hit though… I was really rusty). Luckily I have PMA Zoompa silently judging instead of PMA AwfulWaffle silently judging (not sure who’s better to watch me miss last hits). They grab Lion so they’re in the same sort of situation we were in for the previous game. Their supports are locked, and while they aren’t showing any core picks, if they want to counterpick they’re stuck using a core to do so. We ban out Clinkz and PL (fuck both of those heroes), they ban Huskar (cuz Oracle) and Invoker. We are able to grab a pretty crucial Zoompa Slardar, while they start picking up some strange shit. They take Wraith King, DK (two tanky bois). We had already planned to have Mirana in the offlane, and grab Bristle for the safelane (we really can’t lose a Bristle+Oracle lane right?). The goal is to let fiery just go full ape and just run around without care. We are able to grab Ultra’s signature hero in the SF (I wanted it g1 too but he told me no). They finish with a Nyx sending it offlane.
So we draw every lane, which works for us. Zoompa is a star again and makes plays around the map. SF goes off with 24–3–18 as predicted. After the horrow show of last hitting in offlane I’m able to hit some arrows and make plays with Moonlight Shadow. AwfulWaffle on the Oracle has a ton of key saves throughout the game, and fiery does exactly what we want him to do (well.. minus building Octarine, then wanting to forgo the Radiance for AC, and begging to build Aghs…) Silver Edge SF + the minus armor from everyone means DK doesn’t really tank anything. I’m able to at least match their highest NW on my Mirana so I’m going to count it a win.
Does my team make playoffs? Honestly have no clue. We definitely can, but we almost definitely need to 2–0 waifu’s team this week. 15 teams make playoffs, we are currently in 16th place. We are 2nd in SOS of the 7–7 teams, and since we play another 7–7 team we will at worst be 3rd in SOS if we 1–1. So a 2–0 is probably needed for either side if they want to make it. If we don’t make it, it honestly was great playing with this team results aside. If we do, maybe our 1–1’s will turn into 2–1’s and we actually do something in playoffs. However, we’re likely going to be against a high tier Monday team so who fuckin knows.
Here’s the shit you care about. I will not predict any 1–1 except for my team cuz it’s obvious. I do think there will be many 1–1’s but I’m gonna grow a pair and choose my favorite for each match.
polo (11–3) vs Gofu (10–4) Hype match of the week tbh. I think both teams are really strong and will go far in playoffs. If I remember correctly, both teams are missing a player for this match? I’m going to give the edge to polo here and predict them 2–0, but it’s honestly super close.
Danny (10–4) vs Ion_Dissonance (9–5) I’ve played both of these teams, and I think Danny’s is the stronger team (mainly because of tswift). Danny’s team has a stronger support cast as well so most matchups I think will go their way. Again the teams at the top are pretty close though, but as promised Danny 2–0
Big Fella (9–5) vs Lilith (chinese symbols) (8–6) I haven’t played Big Fella so I don’t have much commentary on this match, but I believe in Lilith’s team here. 2–0 Lilith
GSKW ( 9–5) vs redground (9–5) Gachi team wins here, stronger all around even though they’ve had a small fall from grace down to 9–5. If I was allowed to predict 1–1’s I think I’d still give Gachi the 2–0
Sasquatch (8–6) vs skaterx7 (8–6) Who else predicted that Sasquatch’s team would start losing once teams stop underestimating them? They’re one 0–2 away from having the same predicted score as my team, but they’ll still make playoffs on SOS. That said, I think they have the tools to beat Skater’s team 2–0. I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the other way though. Depends on how skater’s game goes.
noah (8–6) vs Truckwaffle (8–6) I started believing in Truck’s team and then they lose games. Truckwaffle stops believing in my team and we continue getting 1–1’s. Honestly, I think we need noah to 2–0 here for our SOS. We played them and not Truck so I think that’s what helps us most. That said, I think both these teams make playoffs. I’m going to go 2–0 Truckwaffle here, and since I did that they’re probably going to 0–2 as Treyn just goes nuts on their team.
MGHappyhobo (8–6) vs SMACKTRICKZ(weeb) (8–6) I haven’t played against either of these teams so I don’t know anything about this matchup. But I don’t believe in weebs so gotta give this one to happyhobo 2–0.
Bruni (7–7) vs Potato Farmer (7–7) I didn’t have much faith in Potato’s team this season, with the games dependent on Potato having a stellar game and fc doing everything he can to make it possible. That said we just played against Bruni and they didn’t feel super strong either. The issue here is I think Bruni drafts will tilt Potato from the beginning because they just don’t make any sense. I’m giving it to Bruni but it’s a tossup.
Ripley (7–7) vs waifu (7–7) It’s gonna be 1–1, RIP Ripley’s streak of 4 seasons going to playoffs.
waves (6–8) vs cesario (6–8) I believe in waves team here but neither go to playoffs. 2–0 waves
CRAP (6–8) vs Clare (5–9) 2–0 CRAP, Clare’s team is the only team we 2–0'd and that has to mean something pretty bad
bloodninja (5–9) vs Inquisitor35 (5–9) Idk either team… ummm 2–0 bloodninja
Rabbi- (4–10) vs BYE (0–14) EZ 2–0 for team BYE, Rabbi-’s team has been pretty weak and the BYE will put the nail in the coffin
Mantis (4–10) vs Kabobrocks (3–11) I still believe in Kabo, and Mantis picked Viper in scrim so I’m still tilted (not really). 2–0 Kabo.
SO, my 15 playoff teams are as follows (without cheating and using a spreadsheet to predict SOS):
UNLESS MY TEAM BOOKENDS OUR SEASON WITH 2–0’S THEN GOODBYE SMACK I’M GOING TO PLAYOFFS
jk we 1–1